Alcor predicts member revivals on or before Dec 31 2099???!!

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RibJig
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Alcor predicts member revivals on or before Dec 31 2099???!!

Post by RibJig » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:56 pm

two most recent Cryonics Magazine 2-part series
"Revival of Alcor Members" ??assumes-predicts??
revivals will start in "20XX"
stunning assumption or informed? & based on what? :?: :!: :?: :!: :?:
others agree revivals will be routine pre-1/1/2100 ??

johnkclark
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Re: Alcor predicts member revivals on or before Dec 31 2099?

Post by johnkclark » Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:05 am

Hi Ribjib

I would be very surprised if revival took longer than 80 years and equally surprised if it took less than 10. Of course I've been surprised before but as long as it happens it really doesn't matter if it happens in 10 years or 10 thousand, subjectively both will seem instantaneous to you. One thing is certain, however long it takes if you've been revived then the world you wake up in must have technology radically more advanced than what we have now, so we must accept the fact that the entire society will be radically different too; at least things won't be dull and it sure beats oblivion.

John K Clark

RibJig
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Re: Alcor predicts member revivals on or before Dec 31 2099?

Post by RibJig » Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:32 pm

What if all cryonically preserved have instructions
specifying they NOT be revived until after revivals
of humans have become routine?

In other words, no humans have agreed in advance
to being revival "guinea pigs"...?

Wanting to extend life indefinitely & subjecting oneself
to permanent death via "early days revival failure"
seems contradictory...

To expect Human Revival #1 (HRN1) thru, say, HRN100 to all be successful... :o :o :o

MV10
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Re: Alcor predicts member revivals on or before Dec 31 2099?

Post by MV10 » Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:33 pm

This thread reminds me how far behind I've gotten on my Alcor magazine reading. Did they actually predict this or was it more along the lines of a supposition in support of some other point? I can't see how anyone could make a rational prediction at this stage. We only vaguely know what is probably required. Heck, it has only been relatively recently that the preservation process has reached the point that physical damage appears to be minimal.

The "revival guinea pig" point is a good one. Recently I've considered whether my wife and I might want to explore how to issue "special instructions" about different types of revival. For example, an economist who is reasonably well-known in AI circles named Robin Hanson has hung his hat on the idea of human-consciousness uploads (or "ems" as he has dubbed the idea, as in "emulation"). You destructively scan the human brain and the result is uploaded into some sort of enormously complex simulation (magical hand-waving resolves practical questions like sensory input). While this seems somewhat unrealistic to me, I can't completely rule it out of the realm of possibility. It isn't really our cup of tea, and I'm not sure I'd ever want that sort of revival (non-destructive scanning might be a different story) -- but even if we'd contemplate it, I'd certainly want a long precedent of successful uploading and normal behavior over the long term before I'd want our dewars uncorked.

In terms of the prediction, if that's what it was, I suppose it could be instructive to compare 2018 to what the world was like in the opposite direction during the 1930s. The first machine that could be called a computer was able to perform 1-bit addition using a few switches and lights mounted to a block of wood...

abrooks
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Re: Alcor predicts member revivals on or before Dec 31 2099???!!

Post by abrooks » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:22 pm

The youngest cryopreserved patients might be the first to be revived, as they are in the best condition.

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