When will we revive the first cryopreserved patient?

Mechanical and biological cell repair topics
bwowk
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Re: When will we revive the first cryopreserved patient?

Post by bwowk » Thu Nov 10, 2011 1:40 pm

There is no evidence that any aspect of long term memory or personality is stored electrically.

wlerner
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Re: When will we revive the first cryopreserved patient?

Post by wlerner » Thu Nov 10, 2011 5:23 pm

There are a number of factors which complicate an accurate determination of revival time. My biggest concern as a future cryopreserved person would not necessarily be when I will be revived, but will I be stored long enough to be revived when the technology is available. I would hope that all members do their utmost to insure that:
Alcor maintains secure and adequate storage space for the dewars, and maintains adequate resources to insure our storage indefinitely.

You live as long as possible. The longer you live, the more the technology for processing and storage will progress, thereby making transition from an animated to a reanimated person more likely.

You are stored as long as possible. The longer a patient is in storage, the more technology will progress, barring unforeseen human catastrophe or natural disaster which compromises the storage facility.

In my opinion, the most important step a member can take is to insure adequate funding for their preservation and continued long term storage. A near perfect preservation is meaningless if patients can only be stored for 50 years before the funds are exhausted.

I believe that the military industrial base will provide the technology necessary for reanimation. Assuming development and maturation of Quantum Computing, a fairly sophisticated, although not general, Artificial Intelligence, and advances in nanoscale manufacturing, I would say reanimations will begin to take place between 2080 and 2180. I suspect Alcor will grow at that point and have facilities for rehabilitation of revived patients and be able to assist with our reintroduction into society.
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TDK
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Re: When will we revive the first cryopreserved patient?

Post by TDK » Mon Nov 14, 2011 5:51 pm

Honestly, as it becomes more and more realistic to restore someone, the membership in the organization will increase exponentially. As will interest in the technology. Each new breakthrough makes the prospect of cryopreservation more realistic to people. So I'd imagine a lot of this stuff will start to accelerate. But I also think it will start becoming more and more expensive. Because it won't be economically practical to cryopreserve every single person who dies. But as it becomes more obvious to the average person that it is a valid option, more and more people will start clamoring for the service. No different than people rushing to get an HIV vaccine, or a cancer cure, etc. Once the "cure for death" becomes a reality, every person on earth will want access to it, and they will be willing to pay a great deal of money for it.

I see the progression like this:

Ability to repair and replace organs: Used in medical cases such as liver transplants, lung transplants, heart transplants, etc. This will raise lifespans as most medical progress does.

Ability to reverse the aging process: This will rapidly become the new "plastic surgery". It will be seen as a luxury, not a medical necessity.

At this point, people will realize that the rich are gaining the ability to "live forever".
And there will also be the conflict regarding overpopulation, if this technology is available to everyone.
There might become a black market of people providing injections to reverse and prevent aging, etc.

I think we may hit these barriers and societal conflicts before it's possible to easily clone or repair
an entire body or bring people back from cryopreservation.

But once it's possible to bring people back from cryopreservation, and once it's possible to reverse aging, and repair the body, there will be huge issues regarding population, and the cost of providing these services to the people who want them. Which is another huge reason for Alcor to find a way to be financially robust. Because I really think there will be a timeframe where the services we need, as cryopreserved people, will be very, very expensive. And limited as far as who can benefit. It might take a very long time before a way is found to balance population with technological/medical advances.

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Re: When will we revive the first cryopreserved patient?

Post by Utopian21 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 1:35 pm

I sometimes wonder if those that are negative in relation to cryonics are indeed thinking straight. Cryonics is the only alternative to cremation or burial. Sure, there is a chance that it might not work, but the alternatives are certainly fatal.
To the person in cryostasis time will be unimportant.
My only concern is now is the stability of the world, western economies and in particular the U.S.A. Especially with view of its religious leaning, gun laws etc.
The plus side of globla warming, fuel and mineral shortages and other socio-economic and financial stresses is the Necessity is the mother of invention and this will ensure that nano technology, medical and cryonic development wiil happen then needs must.
Although the Chinese and other nations are progressing in space for example, this might lead to another space race. I cannot see the USAand/or Europe letting China be the first back to the moon or colonise it, or indeed be the first to step on Mars.
The need for more resources and for humans to expand will lead to the opening of new frontiers on all fronts within this century. Cryonics will be amongst those technologies that will benefit.
Hopefully I wont be forgotten when it comes to reanimation :-)
:)

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Re: When will we revive the first cryopreserved patient?

Post by TDK » Wed Apr 25, 2012 2:23 pm

I am also more concerned with political and economic stability.

I have great faith that as long as society stays stable, the technology will keep developing.
Seeing how profitable drug companies are, and how much money medical professions make,
and how much hospitals charge for things like cancer treatments, I have no doubt that they
will jump on the bandwagon, in terms of providing amazing treatments, at equally staggering
costs. Everyone knows that preventing death, is a very profitable venture. They are
constantly looking for new treatments, because people will pay almost anything to
stay alive. Which is why I tend to advocate advertising Alcor as something that
could save people's lives. Some of the Alcor people seem to dislike the idea
of promoting Cryonics as "cheating death". But I honestly think a lot of people,
when they are diagnosed with a terminal illness, will do almost anything.
They go to europe or asia for experimental treatments, spend hundreds
of thousands of dollars, etc. If they were aware of Alcor, I think they
might be willing to pay for cryopreservation. It's not the ideal time for
someone to make that kind of decision, but I still have no doubt a lot
of people would be willing to pay.

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Re: When will we revive the first cryopreserved patient?

Post by wlerner » Mon Jul 30, 2012 10:25 am

“This isn’t cryonics, where maybe you have a .001 percent chance of surviving,” he said. “We’ve got a good scientific case for brain preservation and mind uploading.”

The above quote was taken from an article on http://www.kurzweil.net by Kenneth Hayworth, a neuroscience researcher.

I posted this message in this section for opinion on the 1/1000 percent chance of surviving the author feels a cryonics patient has. With no evidence to back this claim, I am tempted to ignore it and let the issue go, however, I am interested in other members opinions.

-----

Reference:

Kenneth J. Hayworth, Electron Imaging Technology for Whole Brain Neural Circuit Mapping, International Journal of Machine Consciousness, 2012, DOI: 10.1142/S1793843012400057
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Aschwin.de.Wolf
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Re: When will we revive the first cryopreserved patient?

Post by Aschwin.de.Wolf » Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:27 pm

In my opinion, Kenneth Hayworth is not doing anyone a favor by throwing around such numbers without corroboration. Please consult Thomas Donaldson's article about an alternative way to think about cryonics and probability here:

http://www.alcor.org/Library/html/probability.html

Alcor is quite supportive of the Brain Preservation Foundation and its aim to validate chemopreservation as a potential alternative preservation method. However, in the discussion about these topics a lot of errors about cryonics and chemical preservation have been repeated. We are currently working on a longer article to set the record straight on this. In the meantime you may want to consult these pieces:

http://www.alcor.org/Library/html/chemo ... ation.html

http://www.alcor.org/magazine/2011/06/0 ... -proposal/

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Re: When will we revive the first cryopreserved patient?

Post by bwowk » Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:16 pm

Ken Hayworth is a public Alcor member and signatory on the Scientists' Open Letter on Cryonics.

http://www.evidencebasedcryonics.org/sc ... -cryonics/

August 8 edit:

Ken was badly misquoted. See my later message below for details.
Last edited by bwowk on Wed Aug 08, 2012 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: When will we revive the first cryopreserved patient?

Post by Merkle » Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:54 pm

A previous post didn't seem to make it.

The following link goes directly to the article:

http://chronicle.com/article/The-Strang ... of/132819/

"This isn't cryonics, where maybe you have a .001 percent chance of surviving. We've got a good scientific case for brain preservation and mind uploading."

Ken needs to be castigated.

See Brian's comment about the accuracy of the quote.
Last edited by Merkle on Wed Aug 08, 2012 5:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.

bwowk
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Re: When will we revive the first cryopreserved patient?

Post by bwowk » Wed Aug 08, 2012 4:55 pm

Ken Hayworth has indicated in private correspondence that he was badly misquoted. He actually said something like:
Many people today assume that the chances of cryonics working is really low like .001 percent. We need to get more research into cryonics and other preservation methods so that we can move beyond this assumption.
He never said that cryonics had a low chance of working or that there was a good scientific case for mind uploading. He said that people are too pessimistic about both, and that more research needs to be done.

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